Spring Training 2018 Thoughts – Here We Go Again

Why do we love spring training? Is it because we’ve missed baseball that much over the last 4 months? Is it because it means spring is coming which means no more snow and ice? (Seriously, NC let’s get it together with the ice in March). Everyone reading this and everyone that gets excited about spring will have a slightly different reaction. For me spring training is warm sun and backfields of baseball in the Phoenix area. It’s watching super talented kids figure out how to translate that talent into production while still trying to figure out to be an actual real life adult. Many of them in a country that speaks a different language than they do while making less than minimum wage. (You can find more on that here).

This year, I spent almost all of my time in Peoria watching Padres prospects. Why? Because the Padres have an incredible amount of talent in the low minors. The Padres might be bad in 2018 but the future is oh so bright in San Diego. Peoria is also the only place that the big league GM can wander around the backfields without having a throng follow his every move. Everybody knows it’s AJ Preller in the gym shorts, t-shirt, and floppy hat but he’s there every day so nobody interrupts him while he does the same thing as everyone else….watch talented kids play baseball.

The following are assorted notes and comments from the 6 days I spent in Phoenix this year. I didn’t type anything up last year (and like the 3 years before that) which is unfortunate because I had notes on several players listed below as well as comments about Khalil Lee of the Royals, a player that I liked quite a bit in my handwritten notes, who is now fairly highly regard in the baseball industry. I hope that some of these guys break out like Lee did. You’ll note that I didn’t take a lot of video this year….mainly because my camera didn’t make the trip, oops. Last year’s videos are uploaded here.

Love the Padres kids.

I saw Fernando Tatis, Jr.  for the first time in the spring of 2016 when he was a barely 17 year old who was a potential White Sox kid. That summer the Padres picked him up in a salary dump of James Shields. Tatis was the throw-in….and then in spring of 2017, he had added weight and was all of a sudden a monster. A future superstar monster. He’s continued to add weight and athleticism and last year he hit .278 with 22 home runs and 32 stolen bases while playing shortstop in A and AA. All at 18 years old. I need to repeat Fernando Tatis is a superstar. He’s big but moves incredibly well. As he has added weight, he’s added athleticism. Still smoothing out. He will expand the zone from time to time but mainly stays within himself. Will definitely work at short for the short-term, hands and arm are plus. May end up at 3B but future 30+ home runs with .280 avg. He could be up this year but may struggle with breaking balls down and seemed to be taking a few too many first pitch fastballs but oh wow is he going to be good. 2019 will be a big year, superstar in 2020. (Maybe I’m a little excited and it’s 2020 and 2021 but it’s soon).

Luis Urias will hit .320 if he has enough pop to keep pitchers honest. Is it 30 power or 40 power? At 40 power, he’s a star. Tracks incredibly well. Hand/eye is unbelievable. Body and bat control at the plate is superb. Arm may be lacking for SS but will be above avg at 2B and could play SS in a pinch. Worst case, excellent utility player who pops some huge babip seasons.

Tirso Ornelas is going to hit and hit a lot. Great swing, doesn’t expand the zone, good body. Has already added good weight. Ball jumps off bat. Haven’t seen him throw but moves well enough to be average in a corner.

Gabriel Arias and Luis Almanzar are a little further away offensively but both are explosive athletes. Jeisson Rosario fits in this group as well. Actions at plate for all are good but need more reps to determine how soon they’ll hit. Almanzar working at 3B in morning workouts but saw him play primarily SS. Arias played 3B. Will be interesting how this shakes out since Almanzar has the build to continue to add weight and could profile at 3B. Rosario is a potential impact defender in centerfield who has just now turned 18. The question on Rosario is how much he’ll hit and when we’ll know.

Luis Campusano is young but looks like he can stay behind plate. Initial looks at the plate were good as well.

Hudson Potts is 18-year-old who looked terrible in AA/AAA game in the afternoon and then hit a double in the big league game the same night. Oh to be 18. As the weekend went on, he looked better at the plate and more balanced.

I saw Edward Olivares, that the Padres acquired in a trade over the winter, and while he may play CF, I mainly saw him in a corner to Jeisson Rosario being in CF. Rosario is a future star in CF and I’m not sure whether Olivares will ever profile like that. Olivares did display above average run times but I didn’t see the offensive explosiveness of a guy who hit 17 home runs and stole 18 bases in A ball last year. Olivares would probably be a hyped prospect in some other systems but in San Diego’s system, a 22-year-old in high A ball is just another potential guy.

Videos of Arias, Ilarraza, Ornealas and Corey Ray from my trip are here. 

The Padres also have the arms to complement the bats but the arms are all slightly older and generally without the super exciting upside of the position players. Many of the Padres high ceiling arms were throwing in a Padres prospect game on Tuesday, March 27^th. I had to get on a plane that morning but only Padres personnel were allowed in to see the game. As such, I didn’t see Mackenzie Gore or several other high-end Padres pitchers. I did hear from several people that Gore, the 3^rd overall pick from Whiteville, NC, is very special.

The first day, I saw Chris Paddack and he was 90-93 with a 6+ changeup. Both fastball and change have sink. Changeup was swing and miss and projects as strikeout pitch. Curveball flashed 50 but was timid with pitch. Still working back from Tommy John.

I also saw lefties Logan Allen and Eric Lauer pitch on back to back fields. I concentrated on Allen who is a sturdy lefty who was acquired by the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade. The Kimbrel trade where the Padres got a year of elite closer and then traded him for more talent than they gave up the year before to the Braves. Allen was 92-94 with an above average to plus slider that sometimes morphed into a cutter. He showed good control but was a little loose in the zone. He looks like a good athlete but he seemed to tire/lose his delivery after about 4 innings. Lauer was a little less impressive but he’s a 4 pitch lefty and it’s really just a question of whether he can get right-handed hitters out or not.

You often see people comment that the stuff was flat or they missing a mph on their fastball or they were a little loose in the zone during a bad outing. This is usually due to not repeating a pitcher’s delivery. That’s one of the reasons that scouts look a delivery and if it’s atypical from a big league pitcher then they write reliever down or they want to know if the pitcher is an elite athlete. It’s pretty common to see guys in spring training be inconsistent inning to inning with their deliveries. Perhaps the biggest issue that separates relievers from starters at the big league level is the ability to repeat their delivery over and over for 100+ pitches every 5 days. Big league pitchers, even established starters, can struggle to repeat and it’s usually the reason why pitchers are inconsistent from start to start. It’s hard to look at a 19-year-old and forecast that he’s going to maintain a complicated delivery…unless he can maintain a complicated delivery. It’s the reason that Andrew Miller is a lights out 3 inning reliever but could never start. Miller can’t repeat his delivery for 100 pitches every 5 days. It’s also the reason that I heard several people discuss Mackenzie Gore’s exceptional athleticism and therefore his ability to repeat his delivery.

Someone who can repeat their delivery, and who is totally different from all other players that I wrote up this year, is Robbie Erlin who I saw pitch again on a backfield. I remember seeing Erlin pitch on the same field 5 years and several surgeries ago. Erlin is a classic, command and control lefty who can really pitch but you always wonder if the fastball will be enough. The look last week looked similar, except he seemed to really get squared up by right-handed pitchers. In the past, his change up was his best pitch and he controlled right handed batters much better but he was definitely squared up by guy who might project as fringe big leaguers.

Another pitcher who didn’t repeat very well was Cal Quantrill. Quantrill was a top 10 pick out of UCLA a few years ago after he had Tommy John surgery in college. I didn’t love Quantrill when I saw him last year but he was still coming back from TJ and last year he touched 96 despite struggling with his mechanics. This year, he was more 92-94 and seemed to struggle with his rhythm through his delivery. In his 1^st and 4^th innings, he was more athletic and the timing of his delivery was better. He also threw considerably more strikes with his fastball. In the 2^nd and 3^rd innings of work, his timing through his delivery as well as his arm swing were inconsistent and as a result his fastball command was inconsistent and his off speed pitches were flatter. Generally speaking, his fastball was 92-94, his slider was roughly 83ish, and his change up was consistently a plus pitch. In his last inning of work, he settled into a combination of the two deliveries mentioned above. He wasn’t as athletic as he was in the good delivery but not as bad as he was in the bad delivery. Quantrill’s projection is all about which version of the delivery you think he will maintain going forward. The optimist sees a future 92-96 with average fastball command, a plus changeup, and average slider an athletic delivery and a possible #3 starter (above average). The pessimist sees a 92-94 with below average fastball command, a plus changeup, and a below average curveball on a guy who probably gets hurt again. If you bet the middle then you’re really betting he’s a #4 starter who looks great some days and terrible in other days. As usual the middle is probably the correct place to be but it’s not as much fun as saying he’s great or he’s terrible.

The last notable Padres pitcher that I saw was Robert Stock. Stock is a former catcher who is now 28 years old but sits in the upper 90’s. It’s a complete reliever delivery and reliever stuff but it’s upper 90’s, a plus slider, and this.

The Brewers top 3 prospects in AAA game on 3/23 were Corey Ray (terrible), Lucas Ercerg (blah), and Keston Hiura (!). Ray was a top 10 pick 2 years ago out of Louisville and his swing looks terrible. Ercerg is a 3B in name only and I’ve never seen the power than would excite enough to let him impact anything as a bad 3B or a 1B. Hiura didn’t flash much but for someone just drafted in 2017 to be in this lineup was a good thing. Hiura should be an offensive 2B and didn’t play the field. Not playing the field is concerning since many teams thought he needed Tommy John out of college after not playing the field in his 2017 college season. I also heard that Ray was being shopped aggressively over the winter but there weren’t any takers due to the swing issues.

I also saw the AA/AAA Indians team which featured a couple of interesting guys. Bobby Bradley is a big dude who swings hard. The question is how big and how much he’s going to miss. He hit a long home run in the game I saw him, despite a bit of abbreviated swing. I’ve always liked how he controlled at bats and the pop and he probably profiles as a guy with plus power that walks enough to keep a high on base percentage. If he stays at first base (a question considering he’s listed as 6’1” and 225 and probably heavier than that) then he’s a solid starter or at least a platoon 1B. If he can’t field the position, then he’s a bench bat who hopefully DH’s.

The other notable hitter for Indians was Eric Haase, a 25-year-old potential everyday catcher. Haase has played with Fransisco Mejia who has overshadowed him but Haase looked like a solid prospect in his own right. I liked his defense behind the plate and I really liked his offensive game. He made a lot of loud contact including a home run off of Quantrill and 2 other doubles in the game. His swing works very well and he walked 11.5% of the time last year so I think he’s an average big league catcher. Probably not in Cleveland with their current catchers and Mejia but probably somewhere soon.

The Padres share a complex in Peoria with the Mariners. Unfortunately, the Mariners have no prospects at all. When you cancel backfield games because you don’t have enough pitchers it’s kind of an indictment of your entire organization. It’s almost like  someone in the organization should have realized that you need enough minor league players (specifically pitchers) for spring training. On top of that, the guys who are on rosters aren’t exciting at all. Their best prospect is Kyle Lewis and he’s hurt (again). Their second best prospect is Sam Carlson….also hurt. Their third best prospect is Evan White, who you hope is an average first basemen due to his good glovework and limited power ceiling. No depth, no explosiveness in the system.

I saw Evan White in one of the pleasures of spring training, the big league pitcher needs work outing. In this case it was on March 26^th in the big league Peoria Stadium and it included Mike Leake, Ichiro Suzuki, and an assortment of minor leaguers for the Mariners and Rangers. Leake threw 7 innings for the Mariners and did Mike Leake things. He was basically 84-86 with a fastball that went in, out, and down whenever he wanted it to. He threw a big league average curveball, a big league average changeup, and worked fast with the same delivery over and over. Leake will probably bump up to 88-91 in the big leagues but he’s your basic #4 starter who just gets outs, over and over. He’s also an elite level athlete who probably could have stood on the mound and thrown fastballs between 84 and 86 mph all night if that had been the request.

While Leake looked like Mike Leake should, it was an event watching Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro is an all time great but he’s also 44 years old and in his 18^th season in the big leagues…after a full career in Japan. Ichiro did the Ichiro thing, he looked overwhelmed at the plate until he chopped a ball into the SS/3B gap and then beat it out. He hit it a little harder than the typical infield hit because he no longer profiles a plus runner and was definitely not interested in running hard on this brisk Arizona night.

The guy pitching to Ichiro was Mike Matuella. Matuella is a former Duke kid who has had several arm injuries and but still has elite stuff. He sat 95-97 with a curveball that flashed plus and a changeup that wasn’t terrible and held the velocity for most of the night. Matuella’s stuff is better than Matuella’s athleticism and his fastball command wavered as did his ability to repeat his mechanics. The fastball seemed to have some sink but was mainly straight and when he left it in the middle of the plate, it seemed to get hit around pretty well. Matuella has never thrown more than 75 innings in a season so if he makes it to 100 this year then it will be a big year for him and will probably put him on the cusp, if not in, the big leagues.

This wraps up the majority of the thoughts from my trip but going to Phoenix for spring training is always a joy and part of that is the baseball, part of that is the friends (thanks Mark and Kim), and part of that is hanging out with the baseball guys. The scouts and front office people have always been really cool to talk to and it’s pretty cool to talk to the same guys each year.

Oh and remember that Fernando Tatis is going to be a superstar.

 

Spring Training – 2014

I love Baseball. I love Phoenix in March. I love baseball in Phoenix in March.

Two years ago I wrote an extensive recap of my time in Arizona and it got glowing reviews. Last year I tried to do the same but I found that I never had time to fully recapture the glory of the trip. As a result this will be a shorter more compact writeup but I hope that anyone who reads it finds it entertaining.

I flew into Phoenix on March 12th. Dr. John Burbridge and his lovely wife were on my flight and I sat with them and John and I talked baseball for a large portion of the flight. Dr. Burbridge was one of my wife Sara’s MBA professors at Elon University and he’s a huge and very knowledgeable baseball fan who was on his way to the SABR Conference (Society for American Baseball Research) in Phoenix. John and I get along very well, ever since I crashed one of his SABR debate teams practices and tried to help them out some. I hope I was successful and I think they enjoyed the feedback.

After landing I rented my Ford Fusion (I can’t believe NASCAR races these things) and drove to the Markim Hotel. The Markim is an exclusive hotel in Peoria that only caters to the best clientele. This includes family and friends of the proprietors Mark and Kim Tunney. I’m proud to be one of the latter by association of my wife and Kim who are high school best friends. The tenants during this trip included Kim’s sister Kristen and mom Janet, both of whom are wonderful people. Kristen has recently relocated to the Valley after one too many snowy winters in Chicago and is looking for a job in marketing.

After getting settled in I checked in with my sources and found that Miguel Almonte and Sean Manea would be throwing in a backfield game between the Royals and the Rangers in Surprise. I find the backfields and young prospects imminently more interesting than the normal big league games. I don’t know if it’s because I’m a secret hipster or if it’s just because I really enjoy baseball at its core. I really appreciate the game at its highest level but I like to look at players who haven’t reached their peak and try to speculate on what that peak will look like. I’m not necessarily good at it, but it sure is entertaining.

When staying at the Markim the easiest ballparks to access are in Peoria, where the Padres and Mariners train, and in Surprise, where the Royals and Rangers train. This is really nice for me because the minor league systems for all four systems are pretty stacked with lots of lower level impact talent.

When I went to see Almonte and Manea they were both impressive and the game let me put eyes on Bubba Starling, Ronald Guzman, Jorge Alfaro and Joey Gallo again. I was impressed with Alfaro, Gallo, Almonte, and Manea but less so with Guzman and much less so with Starling. Below you’ll see my reports on Almonte, Manea, and Alfaro and later you’ll see the reports on Starling and Guzman. Manea’s arm might fall off but he’s got excellent stuff with surgical command until it does. Almonte is exciting. He’s basically the kid that is just winging it and trying to predict the future for him is a fool’s errand. I think Almonte’s future will be good but it could range from a lightsout late inning reliever to a #2 starter. Alfaro is nicknamed the legend because he has unbelievable tools and I think he’s coming into them. As a catcher he runs really well and had an exhilarating at bat against Almonte in which he fought off a couple pitches and then doubled down the left field line. Although I didn’t see it, I’m told he also has a 70-80 grade arm which just adds to the equation. Alfaro will probably start the year in AA and will be big league ready in 2015-2016.

How to read a baseball scouting report:

Baseball scouts use the 20-80 scale to describe a players current and future tools. In general the tools being described for position players are the “five” premier tools like hitting ability, power, speed, defense, and arm. For pitchers the tools being rated are generally each pitch, command of pitches, and control. I’ve also graded each pitchers delivery.  The 20-80 scale is a rating from poor to elite.

The scale goes from 20-80 in part because it is built like a bell curve for major league baseball players. While there aren’t that many 50 grade hitters in the world, there are a lot more 50 grade hitters in the big leagues at any point in time than there are 20 grade hitters or 80 grade hitters. Elite grades are given very infrequently and are generally the best in the game type of grades.

On Thursday night I hustled home to meet the Altenhoffs so that we could meet Mark and his parents for dinner further east in the Valley. The dinner was good and I really enjoyed the dinner conversation with Mark and Kim’s parents (and Kristen), even when Mark’s dad brought up the Jimmy Leyritz home run in the 1996 World Series. Yes, I’m still bitter.

On Friday, I went to Peoria to pull in the Padres backfield workouts. It was here that I saw Matthew Wisler last year when he was a relatively unknown prospect and now he’s the number 47 prospect according to baseball prospectus and number 39 according to Keith Law of ESPN. I committed to going to Peoria after texting with Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus (BP). I met Jason two years ago and I remember being super awkward when meeting him the first time at a Yu Darvish backfield start. Jason is the head prospect writer for BP and is a really skilled scout as well as being a nice guy. Since I first met him Jason has been unbelievably helpful and inviting for soliciting his opinions and accessing his knowledge. This includes putting up with my constant questions during this trip about where to go to watch talent.

This trip was no different, I walked in to the Padres workouts and after watching Hunter Renfore (the Padres 2014 first round and #13 overall pick), Jason walked up and stopped, and then we hung out and watched the rest of the BP session. The secret to watching backfield BP sessions is to jump from field to field to catch the most exciting BP group during each round. After hooking up, JP and I watched Franchy Cordero, Josh Van Meter, and Something Reyes. I saw Cordero and Van Meter play several times throughout the weekend and I really liked both a lot.  Cordero is a big SS who will probably be a future 3B but who has a sweet left handed swing with a lot of pop. Van Meter is a small 2B/SS who is probably a 2B in the long run but who could probably play SS in a pinch. Van Meter doesn’t do anything except rip line drives. Everywhere. Over and Over. I don’t know if he’s big enough or strong enough in the long run but wow can this kid hit. He and Franchy’s reports are below. Reyes is a giant of an 18 year old. Physically he’s a monster and he was a good conversation between Astros Scout Spike Lundberg, Jason and I about how big he really is. We finally decided that instead of the 6’4” 220 he’s listed at, that he’s probably 6’5” 235lbs. I found this conversation fascinating because it was enlightening how Spike smiled and said, yeah he’s gained 25 and a bad 15, which comes to the basics of scouting. The art of observation is key and being ruthless/blunt is key as well.

The game that afternoon was the Royals High A – Low A at the Padres High A-Low A teams. In spring training the AA and AAA teams plays in one location while the High A and Low A teams play in the other location. When possible I like to see the High A-Low A games because they offer the most exciting prospects in general. The High A Royals gave me game looks at Cordero, Van Meter, several Padres and Royals pitchers (including Andrew Edwards who was very interesting at 94-96 with his fastball and who actually pitched in Burlington, NC last year) but also my second look at Bubba Starling. Starling was the 5^th overall pick in the loaded 2011 draft and was persuaded to play pro baseball instead of QB at Nebraska by $7.5 million. I saw Starling a couple times in the summer of 2012 when he was a raw centerfielder with tools in short season Burlington. While in Burlington he hit .275/.371/.485 with 10 home runs in 53 games and then .241/.329/.398 in Low A with 13 home runs in 125 games. I really want him to succeed because I think baseball needs more serious amateur multisport athletes….but I just don’t see it. Over the entire weekend, I saw Starling hit 9 times and he struck out 5 times, got hit in the ass with a curveball, popped up, grounded out, and hit a soft fly ball. I honestly don’t think Starling sees the pitch/recognizes the pitch until its on top of him. This causes him to alternate between being too passive and being too aggressive. I see many similarities in this to the way that I hit when I was playing. Starling is a superb D1 athlete and I’m not, but he basically decides before the pitch if he’s going to swing or not.  He swings at first pitch curveballs out of the zone and passes on belt high fastballs down the middle because he guessed wrong. In short, I just don’t see it happening. I think Nebraska fans will enjoy a superstar QB named Starling in 2016.

On Friday night the Altenhoff’s and Tunney’s had a pretty solid family dinner at an Irish pub and they let me join in. I really enjoyed the evening and both families are really good families and I’m really happy that the let me tag along to their outings.  The fish and chips were good but I’m really just a beer guy and I liked Smithwicks on tap at any bar.

On Saturday I went back to Surprise but this time to the Rangers side of the complex. The complexes are typically divided and while access is relatively simple it can be a long walk if you don’t have an access pass. On Saturday the primary attraction was the Rangers and the lesser attraction was the Padres. During Rangers BP I got a good look at Travis Demerrite, Ronald Guzman, Jairo Beras, Nomar Mazara, Jurimei Profar, and others. Between BP and the game I was impressed with Demerrite, Beras, and Mazara. Beras is kind of complicated. Signed as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic as a 6’5” toolshed for a huge amount of money, Beras is remarkably raw. It looks to me like he’s grown some since signing and I’d estimate that he’s now 6’7” and 185 pounds at 18 years old. He has the entire future in front of him and he’s still a long shot but he does swing the bat smoothly and shows the ability to barrel quality minor league pitching. It’s easy to forget that he’s only 18. Mazara and Guzman are also just kids….But I really like Mazara as a RF and I don’t love Guzman. Part of my love for Mazara is the home run he hit over the scoreboard in Greensboro last year, part is the age (18), and part is that I think the hit tool will allow the power to play. With Guzman, I see a gangly unathelitic 1B only profile. I know that scouts, including Spike, think he will gain weight, fill out his athleticism and become a power hitting 1B masher. I can see the profile for this but I just don’t see it happening very often. I hope I’m wrong because he’s the first prospect I’ve seen that my eyes and opinions differ that substantially from the opinions of the professionals and I’d like to know what Tony Clark looks like at 18.

On Sunday’s early in the season many teams do limited workouts and games and some teams do camp days. Camp days don’t really involve games but are limited to workouts and throwing. While these are interesting in the mornings or if a split squad game happens, they are trumped significantly by real games.  On Sunday, after some shenanigans trying to get into the Cubs split squad game (which was sold out), I met Spike and a couple of other scouts in Maryvale for the Brewers-Mariners Low A-High A games. At the game I also ran into Keith Law of ESPN.com. I really like Keith’s opinions on baseball in general and he does his homework on the backfields as well.  The games were punctuated by Devin Williams of the Brewers pitching. I liked Williams motion and I think he has a chance to be a #3 starter at some point. He sat 90-92 with a decent changeup and a breaking ball that flashed average. A couple of other interesting players in the game were Brewers SS Orlanda Arcia, CF Johnny Davis, and Mariners RF Austin Wilson. Davis was very fast and put the ball in play and looked like a good 4^th OF or perhaps more if he continues to hit. Arcia and Wilson look like ballplayers but the looks were limited and neither stood out substantially.

On Monday, I tried to meet Parks but he was busy getting BP’s fantasy guys back to the airport and was looking at a limited day. On a side note, I discovered this weekend that if you want to be taken seriously on the backfields then you should wear long pants. Any one observing in shorts is a fan but someone in long pants and dressed somewhat professionally is someone to respect or at least let observe. It doesn’t make someone a scout but it does make the scouts more likely to respect your opinions and/or to share their opinions with you. I had heard it mentioned before but it sank in over the weekend and I think the general opinion is that if you are a fan who is willing to have a beer then you can wear shorts, if you’re more serious then that you should wear pants.

Instead of meeting Jason, I met a scout at the White Sox – Royals games at Camelback Ranch. I generally don’t try to watch the ChiSox because the lower level talent has been disappointing the last couple years. However, I got to catch Tyler Danish the Sox 1^st round pick on the mound, a couple of other arms, and one last AB from Bubba. Danish looks like a reliever to me and I’ve got his and a couple of other arms in the report below. Of course Bubba struck out in one last ugly plate appearance, but I shouldn’t have expected anything different. I also saw James Dykstra pitch and I thought it was very interesting. Dykstra followed Danish’s 4 inning outing with 4 innings of his own and had a good delivery, a fastball in the 92-94 MPH range with good run on it and at least a big league average or better changeup. Dykstra’s only issue was the complete lack of a breaking ball. He finally threw on in his last inning or two of work and it was pretty poor. His delivery was good and if he could develop a breaking ball then it would make him a candidate to start.

On a side note, it was interesting to see Danish and Dykstra both go four innings in a backfield game. Both tired significantly near the end of their outings, but especially Danish. Danish’s arm slot dropped greatly as the game went on and his velocity dropped precipitously. A lot has been and is written about how best to protect young arms and usage like this would really concern me if I were invested in Danish’s long term future.

Monday night, Janet and Mark combined to grill us fish and vegetables which were delicious and then Kim and Janet went to McDonalds to snag us all shamrock shakes. A Shamrock Shake was a first for me and they didn’t leave out any mint when they made these. Before bed I said adios to Kim and Mark who both had to leave for work before I would get up on Tuesday morning. They really are the best hosts anyone could imagine.

On Tuesday I finished packing up, said my goodbyes to Kristen, Janet, and Sophie (the puppy) and then made my way to the A’s minor league league fields at Papagos Park. The A’s don’t necessarily have a good farm system but they are close to the airport and they do have enough guys to keep me interested. I got to put eyes on several guys that I wouldn’t normally get to see including Billy McKinney, Daniel Robertson, and Shane Robinson. McKinney is a 19 year old outfielder who was the A’s first round pick in 2013. McKinney and Robertson’s reports are listed below but I like McKinney as a rich man’s version of Jon Jay. I haven’t watched him enough to know if he can play CF or not but I think he’ll be at least as good a  hitter as Jay. Right now McKinney is really skinny and I think he could gain 20 pounds and be a .280 hitter with 15 home runs, 15 steals, and solid defense.  I thought that Robertson had a couple of quality AB’s but I need to see more of both him and Robinson to make a better evaluation. I did get to see Phillip Humber who threw a perfect game in 2011. Humber’s report is below but I thought he looked pretty good. The fastball life and command were good but he didn’t throw his slider for strikes at all.

Overall the trip was really exciting and interesting I’d like to thank Jason Parks, Spike xxx, Jason Cole, and Keith Law, and several scouts for allowing me to tag along. I really appreciated the way that they let me listen in on real conversations and occasionally interject my opinions and then take them seriously and listen to what I had to say. I’d also like to thank Mark and Kim Tunney for their unbelievable hospitality and friendship. You guys are great. The most important person to thank though is Sara Johnson who puts up with this baseball obsession and even encourages it from time to time.

2013 Spring Training and Fun – Part 1

Editor’s Note (Yes that’s the same person as the author): This is Part 1, Part 2 will be published in a few days, but this is almost 4,000 words.

Pitchers and Catchers reported…..It’s one of the annual rites of spring. It’s a little news item on the local 6 o’clock news that inspires people all over the country to think of spring. It interrupts the doldrums of winter and elicits hope for millions of people throughout the country, sports fans or not, as they get excited about longer days, less rain and snow and the warmth of summer. As a diehard baseball fan it means even more. It means reports of who looks good and the annual “best shape of his life” reports. For the last several years it means even more. Spring training means I get to come out and see my friends Mark and Kim Tunney. Mark and Kim had a big year last year….they got hitched and it was a great wedding. The two of them are perfect for each other. I’ve known the former Kim Altenhoff for years as one of my wife’s best friends and Kim and I share a great love of sports and especially baseball. In Mark she met, fell in love with, and married a great guy who shares her love of sports and who in the past couple of years I’ve come to call a good friend.

Mark and Kim have nicknamed their home in Peoria, Arizona the MarKim Hotel for all the visitors they get during spring training. The MarKim is a luxurious 3 bedroom hotel (after the conversion of rooms to a Man Cave and an Office). The guests are always so polite and upper class. This year my stay overlapped with one Ms. Janet Altenhoff. Kim’s mother always comes out for a couple weeks of bonding time with her daughter, son in law, and her beloved Chicago White Sox. Janet is always a joy to be around and insists on taking care of everyone (she cooked lasagna for us the first night I was in town). Janet goes to the Sox training camps in Camelback Ranch just about every day during her stay and usually tries to get me to join her but I haven’t been impressed in the minor league talent for the Sox or the Dodgers (whom they share the facility with) for quite a few years.

The MarKim’s location in Peoria is kind of perfect for spring training. Peoria is located to the northwest of Phoenix and the Peoria Sports Complex is about 8 minutes away and is home to the Mariners and Padres Organizations. Additionally it is a short trip to Surprise from Peoria and Surprise is home to the Rangers and Royals. Between those 4 organizations you have 4 of the top minor league systems. On this year’s trip I hadn’t done much preplanning. I prefer to go to a lot of minor league camps and see the up and coming prospects and the simplicity in minor league camp has always appealed to me. Some people only stick to the big league camps and are only interested in seeing the “names.” The first year I did some of that but last year I had an incredible time despite only going to 1 or 2 big league games. My plan this year was to try and see more of the facilities but alas I got sucked in by the proximity to Surprise, Peoria, and the incredible talent on the back fields.

My trip started with a very pleasant flight into Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. As a side note, am I the only one that finds the term Harbor being in the name of a desert airport funny? Ok probably.  But after the pleasant flight, I took the 30 minute ride to the Rental Car Center… (Built in 2010 it’s still called new…anything built after the housing market died is new in Arizona).  My wonderful wife and best travel agent ever, Sara, had lined me up with a mid-sized car from Advantage Rent a Car. The price was incredible, roughly half of the cost of the other rental car companies. Unfortunately, despite knowing that reservations were booked in advance, Advantage was totally unprepared for the number of people picking up their cars.

Advantage Rent a Car – Not earning repeat customers.

It boggles my mind that you could know how many people you needed the day before and yet still be unprepared…it’s not like running a fast food place or somewhere that you can be taken by surprise. After my 70 minute wait, and 90 minutes after landing, I picked up my Mazda 3 and took off to find some action. Frustrated by the last 90 minutes, I chose to hit the Camelback Ranch backfields. Camelback is on the way from the airport to Peoria and it has a Wal-Mart in close proximity. My first stop when getting to Phoenix is to pick up supplies for the trip, the most important of which are Coke Zero, Sunscreen, and Water. It is Arizona after all and if you don’t get sunscreen and water you won’t make it.  I got to Camelback in time to see the last half of a minor league game between the Dodgers and Sox AA/AAA players. The games didn’t include a lot of star talent but it was baseball and that’s what I was here for.

After the games ended I went to the MarKim, checked in with Janet and played with the hotel’s new mascot, Mark and Kim’s adorable new beagle, Sophie. After hanging out with the MarKim owners, Janet, and Sophie while enjoying dinner, I started making a gameplan for the next day. I didn’t accomplish a whole lot so on Thursday I decided to go to the Royals and Rangers camp in Surprise. When you don’t have a plan, you can’t go wrong with going to see talent. Especially when it’s close by.

Typically, mornings in camp are for workouts but on this day the Royals had two different intrasquad games going on. The fields were a mix of levels but the star was Yordana Ventura pitching on one field against Bruce Chen. Most casual fans know Chen as the soft tossing lefty who’s a former Braves prospect and who has won 71 big league games. Primarily through being left handed and boring. And he was left handed and boring on this day. Chen’s fastball doesn’t top 90 these days and he tries to get by on guile and location. (5 days later the Royals decided Chen would not start the year in their rotation).

The star in my eyes on this day was Yordana Ventura. Ventura is one of the Royals top prospects and is a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball. Ventura is small with a big fastball and slider. Ventura is listed at 5’11” and somewhere between 140 and 178 pounds, depending on the source. I’d put him at about 5’10” 155-165 pounds. In case you’re wondering that’s pretty small for a guy who’s been reported to break 100 MPH with his fastball with a plus breaking ball. People roughly my size shouldn’t be able to throw 100 MPH fastballs, but this kid can do it. Unfortunately, his delivery can also be very erratic. On this day his delivery was violent, erratic and inconsistent.

Yordana Ventura throws hard.

And it was worse when he was in the stretch. In the stretch the delivery was seldom the same from pitch to pitch and it appeared the stuff played down as a result. The results against the high A/AA lineup he faced (including Cheslor Cuthbert) were ok, but he beat up his catcher with the consistently bad locations. AA/AAA pitchers, especially with his stuff, should not be bouncing fastballs or throwing all of their breaking balls in the dirt. The final report on Ventura is that I can see the promise of the stuff, I can see the promise of a guy who could still add weight and maintain his velocity better as time goes on….I just don’t see how it plays as a starter. To me he looks like a late inning reliever. A very good reliever but still a reliever. All of this could change quickly if he can maintain his delivery, but based on this one look and the reports I’ve read, I just don’t see it.

After the game started to slow down around 1215, I made my daily trek to find lunch. On this day I hit the same Chick fil-A that I had also hit for a chick biscuit a few hours earlier. Have I mentioned that I love Chick Fil a? Has there ever been a better fast food restaurant? I doubt it.

While I sat in the drive thru, I made a connection with Jason Cole of Lonestar Dugout and Baseball Prospectus through Twitter. Twitter is awesome for a variety of reasons but my favorite is the way that it allows passionate baseball fans to learn information about the game before it has to be written up. Additionally, it’s incredible how easy it is to connect to the guys who write about the game and how polite and helpful they can be. A lot of writers use twitter in spring training to pass along both information on news, but also about where players are playing, etc. This is essential when trying to see prospects and minor leaguers because otherwise it is almost impossible to learn where top players will be. Jason Cole is a big Texan who primarily covers the Texas Rangers but has also begun branching out to other organizations, especially as his star has blossomed under the Baseball Prospectus banner. Jason let me know that he, Jason Parks, and others were planning on catching the Rangers/Mariners AA/AAA games in Surprise. After some in-decision about whether I wanted to watch AA/AAA guys in Surprise or A ball guys in Peoria, I decided I’d go with Surprise and hope to hook up with some of BP writers. It turned out to be a good decision.

The talent on the fields was decent but not super exciting. It was fun to see Rangers lefty Matt Harrison blow through some AA hitters and then to also watch his potential Rangers starting rotation mate Robbie Ross do some of the same with the AAA hitters, but I like to look at the kids that still have those great dreams. As it was Ross only went 2 innings as it seemed the Rangers had already determined that he would start the year in the bullpen. Later in the game I would also see Neil Ramirez. I saw Ramirez last year in the spring when his star was a little brighter but he looked better this year, with more pop on his fastball and a little better delivery. But the highlight of this day was the conversation with Jason Cole about the Rangers, the Mariners, prospects in general, and then him telling me that the Rangers and Royals would hold a prospect night on Friday night in Surprise. There would be 4 games on 4 different fields all backed up to each other with the games featuring the low A, high A, AA, and AAA squads against each other. This sounded great and I told Jason I’d definitely see him at the games.

On Thursday afternoon / evening we cooked out brats, played with Sophie and watched NCAA first round games. I think everyone in the country must watch the NCAA tournament at some point and being in Arizona for the first couple days of the tournament is interesting because the games start at 9 AM or about the time that I get up on a vacation day. When I’m at home I usually don’t stay up to watch the end of the late games, but in Arizona that’s not really a problem because the games are all over by at least 9 PM.

The only two things I wanted to see on Friday were an NC State victory and the Royals-Rangers Prospect game….I guess as a NCSU graduate and a lifelong NCSU fan, I should have known that getting ½ of what you want is good enough. After my Chick fil-A chicken biscuit, I went to the Peoria fields and took in some Mariners practice time before going to watch the 10:40 AM Arizona time start of the State game. On the advice of Kim and Mark, I chose to watch the game at Fox and Hound. The Peoria location of Fox and Hound is almost directly across the street from the Mariner’s practice facility so I cruised in and was escorted to my own room to watch the Wolfpack. The Pack spent the entire year underachieving for their talent but I thought the Tournament would be different. The 2012-2013 team had the frustrating ability to not show up for games that didn’t interest them. Run them out there against Duke or UNC and they would show up with their A game. This team’s A game was good enough to beat anyone in the nation. Run them out there against Wake Forest or Boston College for a road game in January? They would show up with something resembling their D or F game. I actually think it is a testament to their talent that they won as many ACC road games as they did with the lack of will power that they regularly exhibited. But this was the NCAA tournament and I thought that everyone shows up for the tournament, especially when you are playing a perennial tournament team like Temple. I was wrong. The game started at 1:40 EDT. State showed up at 2:40 EDT. The only highlight in the first half was CJ Leslie’s offensive game (this is a shock as Leslie is the most temperamental player on the roster). Note that I didn’t mention Leslie’s defense being a highlight, the entire team’s defense was horrendous in the first half. The team played like they should in the second half and made quite a run but as happened in several other games this year, it was too little too late. It was probably a good thing that I was in a room all by myself because it meant no one was around to listen to my bitching.

But once the game ended and I cleaned up my tab, I remembered I was still in Arizona and about to go watch more baseball. That thought quickly turned around my emotions and off I went to see what the Padres/Mariners A ball squads had to offer.

The Padres have a loaded A ball roster. They have a lot of high end arms and I had a nice list of arms to look for that Jason Parks and Jason Cole had published the week before at Baseball Prospectus. The first field I walked up to had Austin Hedges catching, Leonel Campos pitching, along with Cory Spangenberg and Gabriel Guerrero swinging the bats. (I learned later that I missed the Padres 1^st round selection from 2012, RHP Max Fried who apparently also threw on the other field while I was watching the high A game). Campos is one of the above mentioned arms and on this day was showed his typical low 90’s velocity, and incredible breaking ball, and a general lack of command/control. Most young pitchers have issues with command and control of their pitches, and it seems that this is more noticeable when the pitcher’s stuff is explosive like Campos’s. But this could also be because we don’t notice pitchers without great stuff who lack location. Campos’s breaking ball looked like a curveball but was much harder than a typical curveball and he consistently finished it just below the knees. I would rate the pitch as definitely plus and perhaps more. (Plus is really good and I’ll eventually write a post about the scouting scale).

Cory Spangenberg and Gabriel Guerrero also played in the game. I saw Spangenberg play 3 times during the trip, in this A ball game, in the big league game we attended on Saturday night, and again on Wednesday. Spangenberg is a 2B has plus or better speed and has some pop that comes and goes depending on whether his hitting mechanics are in sync or not. Spangenberg had some good at bats, highlighted by his one at bat in the big league game in which he singled. It was hard to identify Gabriel Guerrero, partially because getting a roster in minor league camp is hard to do and primarily because the Mariner’s don’t put names on the back of their minor league uniforms. Jason Parks would later identify him and I remember him looking decent but expanding the zone. I would want to watch him more closely before offering any opinions.

But this day belonged to Austin Hedges. I’m not exactly sure how to describe great catcher defense. It’s a combination of a lot of factors. This is probably why it’s hard for the sabermetric community to quantify catcher defense. I do know that when you watch it, you know you’re seeing it. Hedges is a great defender. He’s a smooth receiver. His footwork is excellent. He blocks balls in the dirt well, balls that don’t hit the dirt he’s smooth on the pickup of. When he receives, he doesn’t take the ball out of the zone.  But Hedges’ best play on this day combined all of this and the intelligence that you see in great catchers. As a 20 year old, in a minor league game on a backfield in spring training, in a game that doesn’t count Hedges made the type of play that would you would see out of a veteran big league catcher. With two runners on base and one out, Hedges had not given any signs to the infield the entire at bat, I can’t remember him ever giving any signs in that game to that point. But with a full count on Guerrero, Hedges decided that something was up. He stood up and gave signals, nothing unusual, just a minor league catcher who remembered to do something….And then he called for a full count curveball to a free swinger and came up firing after the curveball was in the dirt to throw out the trail runner at second base. I don’t know what Hedges saw before the pitch that made him decide that the runners were going, but I doubt it was a coincidence and then to throw through to second when the lead runner was going to third made it even more impressive. Especially after calling the curveball in the dirt, picking the pitch out of the dirt, and then throwing a 1.95 from glove to glove (the pop time) for the out. 1.95 is considered about an average big league time, to do that on a pitch that you picked out of the dirt is unbelievable.

After leaving the Padres games, still intrigued by the Hedges play, I went back to the MarKim. We cooked out and then Mark and I went to Surprise for the Rangers/Royals games. Jason Parks was correct, it was like Christmas. We walked by the AA and AAA games and to the High A game. As we walked up, the Rangers lineup was Lewis Brinson, Nick Williams, Joey Gallo, Jordan Akins, and Jorge Alfaro. If you’re keeping track that includes the Rangers 2011 #1 pick, top 3 2012 picks, and #4 overall prospect. The rest of the talent on the field was also incredibly talented. The specific notes were that Brinson looks like what you want a center fielder to look like, smooth, fast, lean and muscular. His swing wasn’t bad and I’ve heard that the Rangers had simplified it quite a bit since he signed last year. Joey Gallo set the Arizona Summer League’s home run record last year and you could completely see why, he’s a big 3B with a big uppercut and tons of power. This is basically going to be the 2013 Hickory Crawdad’s Sally League team. And yes I’ll be seeing them in Greensboro at least once this summer. But the coolest thing while we stood and watched all of this talent (the Royals roster wasn’t bad either), was that we walked by Tony Fernandez on the way to the field…..and then when we got to the field we were standing slightly behind Ivan ‘Pudge’ Rodriguez. As in future hall of fame catcher Pudge. Pudge and somebody were sitting on a golf cart, shooting the breeze and watching Pudge’s protégé Jorge Alfaro catch. Apparently this is what you do when you retire as a HOF catcher; you tutor young catchers with tons of tools and promise.

Pudge – Whoa, you don’t see that everyday.

After a few minutes, Mark and I walked over to the low A games. This time we were just to the side of Don Welke. Welke would later be described as “the old man talking shit? Yep that’s him.” Welke is scout royalty. In a career that started 40+ years ago, he has held every job a scout can. He’s been an area scout, a scouting director, and is now a special assistant to the GM for the Rangers. Listening to him rag on all of his scouting buddies was incredible. The game we were watching included Jairo Beras, Adalberto Mondesi, Terrance Gore, Bubba Starling, and some other impressive talents.

Beras is the Rangers controversial 2012 signing. Beras had been reported as being 15 and the Rangers found evidence that he was 16 and eligible to be signed prior to July 2, 2012. Doing so reduced the limits from the Collective Bargaining Agreement that would have reduced Beras’s signing bonus. It was a fascinating story from last spring that was written about here and here. Beras looks like a freshman basketball player, 6’5” or 6’6” and maybe 200 pounds. He’s still a dream, an expensive dream, but still a 17 year old dream.

Beras is a 17 year old dream about to go to short season rookie ball. Last year that player was a 19 year old Bubba Starling for the Royals. Starling spent last year in Burlington (my hometown), and I was fortunate to see him several times. Starling is now a 20 year old dream. An incredibly talented dream, but still a dream. A dream that doesn’t have great baseball instincts and one that I don’t know if it’s ever going to click or not. Give me the younger dream, Beras has more time.

Last year in Burlington, Starling missed the first week or so of games. During that time Terrance Gore played centerfield and showed off his blazing speed. Gore can flat out run. It’s easy 80 speed  (on the 20-80 scale) and he ran a 3.65 to first on a bunt in this game and also tripled to RF that looked like he was floating as he rounded second base.

But the real reason we went to the field was to see Adalberto Mondesi. Mondesi is former big league outfielder Raul Mondesi’s son. The younger Mondesi is still only 17 and yet makes all the plays at shortstop. He also has all of the tools to be a plus hitting, gold glove deserving shortstop. He wasn’t presented with any great opportunities on defense but he did rip a line drive back up the middle. Mondesi is the type of player who could add some strength as he grows and could be the top prospect in baseball in 2 years at the ripe old age of 19. I would not be surprised if Mondesi was the reason that Don Welke chose this game to watch.

I hope you come back for Part 2 about watching big kids throw fastballs 98 miles per hour, the fastest man in professional sports, watching baseball with Jason Parks and Jason Cole and the rest of the trip.

Playoff Predictions

Quick Preview:

A few notes, playoff baseball is pretty much a crapshoot. I think even the best teams in baseball versus the worst teams in baseball aren’t but about a 65% favorite in a one game playoff, slightly more in a 5 or 7 game series. As such I’ve predicted winners (because it’s fun) but I’ve also put the odds as I see them just to keep it realistic.

NL Wild Card: Braves over Cards – Braves are a better team and Medlen has been the best pitcher in baseball for the last two months.  Braves 55% Favorite.

AL Wild Card: Rangers over Orioles – Rangers for the same reason as above, Yu Darvish has been the Darvish everyone wanted in the last month. Wonder if the Rangers are imploding to the point where they lose more than the O’s win. Rangers 52% Favorite.

NL Division Series: Braves over Nats and Reds over Giants. Braves and Nats are pretty even ballclubs and Braves will get the first 2 at home and will get a start from Medlen, while the Nats will miss Strasburg. Braves 53% Favorite.

The Reds and Giants are completely opposite teams, with the Reds playing in a joke ball park for offense and the Giants playing in super spacious Pac Bell Park (or whatever it’s called now). I like the Reds offense a little better so we’ll go with the Reds. Reds 51% Favorite.

AL Division Series: Yankees over Rangers and Tigers over the A’s. The Rangers have imploded, the Yankees are old and beat up, and yet I’ll take the Yankees based on talent and that Darvish won’t start until Game 3 or Game 4 which is a huge issue considering the other starters. Yankees 55% Favorite.

I’ll take the Tigers and their starters versus what’s left of the A’s pitching staff. If Brett Anderson is healthy this series could completely flip but for now I like Verlander, Fister, and Scherzer better. Tigers 53% Favorite.

NLCS: Braves over the Reds. If the Braves series is over quickly they will be able to setup Medlen for Game 1, if it’s not then the depth of their rotation is much better than Cincinati’s. These games should be 7 inning games because the bullpens will throw gas. An important element in these games will be Joey Votto’s health and how the Braves play in Cinci’s small ballpark. Braves 51% Favorite.

ALCS: Tigers over Yankees. The Tigers are the second worst playoff team after the Orioles. They basically didn’t play well for 5 months and then caught the White Sox in the last month. And I have them in the World Series because they have exceptional starting pitching, three very good players, and some of the worst defense as a team I’ve ever seen. If the Tigers don’t win it will be for the same reason Mike Trout should win the MVP; Defense does matter. Tigers 51% Favorite.

World Series: Tigers over Braves. The Braves have lost 4 World Series and even more Playoff Series in the last 20 years and Chipper Jones has been on half of those teams. With Chipper retiring, I’m picking the Tigers to beat the Braves and create more disappointment for this Braves fan. Tigers 51% Favorite.

 

Recent Activity

Since I’ve done a horrendous job of writing anything during the entire baseball season, I’m going to start trying some small post in this Quick Press Feature.

It’s been a long season and the Braves have been about as good as I expected and I took a business class at Elon University about Basebal Analytics and Business. Most of my writing this summer was for that class including topics on the Orioles, the Pirates, WAR, and Salary Caps, the Luxury Tax and Revenue Sharing. On the whole the class gave me a slightly new perspective on the business of baseball but what it really gave me was alot of topics to write about. So look for some more posts even after the season ends.

2012 Predictions

Sitting and watching opening day, when I should have been outside mowing the grass led me to do something productive and that was to do some very simple predictions for the 2012 baseball season. Below are my calculations vs. the over under numbers from Bovada Sports (otherwise known as the first ones I found on the internet).

AL East	Vegas Record		JJ Record
Team	Wins	Losses	Wins	Losses
Yankees	93	69	94	68
Rays	86.5	75.5	90	72
Red Sox	90	72	87	75
Blue Jays	80.5	81.5	86	76
Orioles	69.5	92.5	68	94
AL Central	Vegas Record		JJ Record
Team	Wins	Losses	Wins	Losses
Tigers	92.5	69.5	96	66
Royals	80	82	84	78
Indians	78.5	83.5	78	84
Twins	73.5	88.5	75	87
White Sox	74.5	87.5	64	98
AL West	Vegas Record		JJ Record
Team	Wins	Losses	Wins	Losses
Rangers	90.5	71.5	97	65
Angels	92.5	69.5	93	69
Mariners	72	90	78	84
A’s	72	90	64	98
NL East	Vegas Record		JJ Record
Team	Wins	Losses	Wins	Losses
Braves	86.5	75.5	92	70
Phillies	93.5	68.5	92	70
Nationals	83.5	78.5	83	79
Marlins	84.5	77.5	81	81
Mets	72	90	68	94
NL Central	Vegas Record		JJ Record
Team	Wins	Losses	Wins	Losses
Reds	87	75	92	70
Cardinals	84.5	77.5	84	78
Brewers	84.5	77.5	80	82
Cubs	74.5	87.5	78	84
Pirates	73.5	88.5	70	92
Astros	64	98	52	110
NL West	Vegas Record		JJ Record
Team	Wins	Losses	Wins	Losses
D’Backs	86.5	75.5	90	72
Giants	87.5	74.5	88	74
Dodgers	81.5	80.5	82	80
Rockies	81.5	80.5	79	83
Padres	73.5	88.5	65	97

As you can see my American League Playoff teams are:

Division Winners: Yankees, Tigers, Rangers.

Wild Cards: Rays and Angels.

I think the Yankees and Rangers are the best teams in the AL but I like the Tigers chances of winning the most games and winning their division easiest due to the weakness at the bottom of their division. As such I’ll take the Yankees to win the AL. It is interesting that the division winners all have really really good offenses and the strength of my wild card winners is pitching and defense (with that really being true of the Rays).

My National League Playoff teams are:

Division Winners: Braves, Reds, and Diamondbacks.

Wild Cards: Phillies and Giants.

Obviously the Braves pick looks slightly homerish but I think they are due for substantial regression offensively. And regression isn’t always a bad thing. Regression means moving back toward the mean and the Braves have several players that should do that. I also like the Braves pitching depth. While they don’t have the star power of the other top notch rotations, their depth 1-7 in the rotation is better than any other contenders have. I do think the Phillies top 3 will remain excellent but the rest of the club continues to age and could be in line for massive issues with injuries and ineffectiveness. I do think the playoff teams in the National League are all very competitive with each other so I’ll say the Braves in the World Series.

If you notice I have the American League about 40 games over .500 and the National League 40 games under .500. I think the recent interleague results show that the American League is substantially better than the National League and I’ve tried to reflect this. As such I’ll say that the Yankees will win the World Series but really the difference over a 7 game series is pretty small and I’d probably favor any of my AL playoff teams over all of my NL playoff teams in a 7 game series, but it’s not by more than 5-10% either way in that short of a series.

Spring Training, Keith Law, Jason Parks, and Airports

My wife’s best friend Kim and her fiancé Mark live in Peoria, Arizona and for the last 2 years Sara and I have come out to visit them and go to some spring training games. This year Sara couldn’t make it so I invited myself to spend 5 nights at the MarkKim Hotel in Peoria. My goal was to see as many spring training games as possible, catch up with Mark and Kim and hopefully squeeze in a NC State basketball victory. The trip was an incredible success, except for the Wolfpack losing to Kansas in their Sweet Sixteen game. I saw 3 full fledge big league games, 3 AAA/AA games, numerous top prospects, an intrasquad game featuring Yu Darvish, an Arizona State-California college game and had a great time with Mark and Kim.

I arrived on Wednesday afternoon, drove through Arizona traffic to the MarkKim, had dinner with Mark and Kim’s mother, Janet. Janet is a huge White Sox fan and I had planned to go to a game with her, but alas I didn’t want to waste any of my time watching the Sox play baseball nor watching their dreadful farm system. The MarkKim provided an excellent first meal of barbequed pork chops and a few beverages (the MarkKim really needs to improve upon its beer selection, but the price is nice).

On Thursday morning I got a late start after picking up some supplies from the local Wal-Mart. This included fruit, coke zero, sun screen, and a supply of bottled water for the week. After stopping at Chick Fil a for the mandatory vacation chicken biscuit, I found my way to Tempe Diablo to watch the most interesting pitching matchup of the day. Jered Weaver of the Angels was going against Danny Duffy of the Royals. Duffy spent some time in the big leagues last year and scuffled some but is still a highly rated prospect (Kevin Goldstein had him at #67 and Keith Law had him at #98 on their 2011 top prospect lists) and I was excited to see the two of them throw. Additionally the Angels obviously are now sporting Albert Pujols in the the 3 hole and playing 1B. I walked into the stadium to see the future hall of famer taking batting practice and in between swings he was carrying on a conversation with a white haired gentleman in a collared shirt. The more I watched, the more I became convinced it was MLB Network’s own Peter Gammons. Hello Spring Training, Pujols and Gammons right in front of you. Can it get any better? (Don’t worry this wasn’t the highlight of the trip). Gammons then chatted up future superstar Eric Hosmer directly in front of me along the Royals dugout rail.

Eric Hosmer and Peter Gammons

The game featured Alex Gordon, Hosmer, Alcides Escobar, Johnny Giovatella at 2B, and Yuni Betancourt at 3B for the Royals and Pujols, Chris Ianetta at catcher, Erick Aybar @ ss, Howie Kendrick at 3B, and an old very expensive outfield in Torri Hunter (RF), Vernon Wells (CF), and Bobby Abreu (LF). I was hoping to see Mike Trout or Peter Bourjos get some AB’s but only Bourjos entered in the second half of the game.  A couple of notes on the game:

• Not once but twice did runners (Erick Aybar at least once) get thrown out stealing bases (once third and once second) with Albert Pujols at the plate. Pujols may have escaped the overmanaging of Tony Larussa from last year to this year but apparently Mike Scioscia wants him to feel right at home by running into outs with Pujols at the plate.
• Jered Weaver got lit up pretty good. I couldn’t see a radar gun and apparently spring training ballparks don’t include them on the scoreboard so I don’t have any idea about his velocity but his location seemed to be erratic. For a pitcher who rarely walks anyone, I was surprised to see this.
• Danny Duffy on the other hand had command issues last year in the big leagues walking 4.2/9 innings. On this day his stuff looked good but he was constantly behind in the count and got squared up when he threw hitters count fastballs (2-0 and 3-1).
• Yuni Betancourt is really not good at this defense thing and shockingly he went to the plate and had short at bats. (Not shocking).
• Albert Pujols on the other hand is really good at the plate, squaring up a ball and crushing it off the centerfield wall 420’ away. I know, not exactly earth shattering comments.
• Eric Hosmer’s at bats were excellent, whether against a LHP or a RHP. Even the outs were good at bats.
• Random game note. It’s really hot in the sun in Arizona. The temperature was about 85 and it felt like it in the sun. More on what it felt like in the shade for the next day.

On Friday I had my shit together and got out the door about 845-9 AM. After all it is vacation, can’t get up too early. My goal on Friday was to see some prospects work out and then see the Royals and Dodgers play. The Royals and Rangers share a facility in Surprise and both feature top 5 systems and systems that have a lot of top end talent (as well as talent I know something about). I have the following notes about the workouts and the big league game:

• Bubba Starling is huge. When I was a sophomore at State I turned around in the Chick Fil a line in the atrium (My love affair with Chick Fil A is a longtime one) and almost ran into a freshman Philip Rivers. It was his first day on campus but he was cartoonish big for a freshman quarterback and everything he did looked smooth. Starling is that big. But with more fluidity to his motions than Rivers ever had. Probably why Starling was recruited to play QB at Oklahoma. Starling was the 6^th overall pick last year and projects as a true 5 tool superstar but is still very raw and he is still only 19 years old so the difference between projection and his reality is quite a bit. Not surprisingly, Starling’s batting practice session wasn’t legendary, but his swing was loose and quick and the ball jumped off his bat with what I would call gap to gap power.
• 

  Cheslor Cuthbert in BP

  Next I wandered over to a slightly older group that included Cheslor Cuthbert. Cuthbert is a young 3B prospect who had a huge first half of 2011 and then fell off the table in the second half. I’ve read that Cuthbert has had issues with effort and with conditioning but he is still very young and I’ve also read that his tools may make it seem like he’s not playing hard. When I hear that on a young foreign born player I always think about the criticisms that Andruw Jones used to receive about looking bored. (Lazy comparison, pun intended). I’ve also read recently that Cuthbert showed up with more muscle and in better shape and this jives with what I saw from him. I watched him take batting practice off of coach Rusty Kuntz, which is in itself humorous and delighted my friend Will to no end.

Cheslor Cuthbert midswing

• I also watched Wil Myers take batting practice and the difference between Myers and Starling/Cuthbert was extreme. Myers is an almost big league ready right fielder who is known for his patient (sometimes too patient) approach who projects as an above average right fielder with a plus hit tool, plus approach, and average to plus power (a 4+ WAR Player at his peak). The difference is Myers is almost there and Starling/Cuthbert are years away. As the last hitter in the AAA game that I would catch the tail end of later that day I would watch the too passive version of Myers as he struck out on 4 pitches, never swinging the bat.
• In the big league game that day, all of my notes were about the Royals, but not on purpose:
• Billy Butler “played” first base. In doing so he reestablished that his only real position is DH. He muffed a ground ball hit right at him and doesn’t look comfortable at all at 1B.
  

  Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler

• Eric Hosmer entered halfway through as the rightfielder and his athleticism was evident even if his only chances were routine.
• As I had seen on TV and had read before, Luke Hochevar’s delivery is picture perfect. However, he remains Luke Hochevar in his results.
• I saw Yuni Betancourt walk. I SAW YUNI BETANCOURT WALK.  This is probably the most shocking thing in the entire week.
• Juan Uribe played third base for the Dodgers and I’m pretty sure he’s a walking advertisement that you can play major league baseball while being fat.
• I was cold the entire game. My seats were in the shade, the wind blew about 15 mph the entire game and despite the fact is was 80 in the sun it was about 15 degrees colder in the shade and the wind made me desperately wish I had my windbreaker on. I had wondered on Thursday how the coaches could be wearing pullovers while I was cooking. Now I know.

On Friday night I joined Mark and Kim to watch the Indiana-Kentucky game and the NC State-Kansas games. Kim is an IU graduate and a huge IU basketball fan. We went to an IU alumni bar in Scottsdale. Turns out it’s also a Kansas alumni bar, which was a little surprising but all the KU fans were polite, including the guy who asked if I didn’t know or if I had gigantic balls. I informed both. He laughed and said, well I hope your guys play well and get killed. I returned the opinion and we went our separate ways. Obviously it wasn’t a good evening to the Hoosiers or the Wolfpack but we did have a good time.

On Saturday Mark, Kim, and I had tickets to see the Rangers and Angels in Surprise but my real goal was to see the minor league games between the Rangers and the Royals. Additionally, I had established that Keith Law would be going to the minor league games. I’m a huge Klaw fan, as you can see here, and really wanted to just introduce myself to him and tell him how much I enjoy his work. I drug Mark and Kim to some back field work and got to see Jurickson Profar among others take some swings in the cage before lunch. After lunch Mark and Kim went to the big league game until Kim got hot and then Mark joined me at the back fields while Kim went shopping (note to anyone in Arizona, sitting on the lawn for a packed game on a warm Saturday afternoon game can be overwhelming).

• Matt Harrison pitched the first 6 innings in the AAA game and overwhelmed the Royals AAA roster. Harrison was in the Rangers big league rotation last year and is expected to be in the rotation this year but needed the innings and the Rangers wanted to look at a possible bullpen arm in Greg Reynolds in the big league game. I met Harrison’s wife and 3.5 month old baby girl before the game and they actually live in Creedmoor, just north of Raleigh.
  

  Matt Harrison and Will Myers

• Everett Teaford pitched for the Royals and was almost as overpowering as Harrison. After the game I found out Teaford is a 27 year old college performer who pitched about 40 innings in the big leagues last year. He looked to have excellent command and an effective changeup, which shouldn’t be surprising based on his background.
• Teaford also held up the game wanting to throw with big league baseballs versus minor league balls. I know there is a difference but it seemed pretty interesting, and then got more interesting when the Rangers looked at him, shrugged their shoulders and said, “we don’t have enough for you to throw them too (they had them for Harrison).” I think all the baseball people and scouts were either turned off by it or thought it was hilarious. I was in the latter camp.

Harrison and Myers again

• The most prominent player in the Royals lineup was Wil Myers whose at bats were good even if the results weren’t. Myers also made a nice running catch down the right field line that he got a good read on and showed good athleticism on getting too.
• The highlights of the Rangers lineup were Mike Olt, Jurickson Profar, and Leonys Martin. Olt looked good defensively and had good at bats. Martin is a Cuban centerfielder with questions about his hit tool (ability to make consistent contact) and I didn’t see anything to make me dispute those questions.
• Profar was very interesting. He looked good defensively. Very smooth and fluid and supported everything I had heard and read. Offensively he only had one at bat and sharply grounded out to the left side. The problem was he got down the line at about ¾ speed at best, maybe even less. I was shocked to see this by a player I had heard so many great things about his makeup and effort.  I realize it is just one look at a player during spring training but I found it very interesting to say the least.
• In the AA game on the field directly beside the AAA game, I saw Zach Jackson throw for the Rangers. He was erratic and his command varied from inconsistent to non-existent.
• In about the 7^th inning, Keith Law and a buddy showed up from the other side of the complex. I knew Klaw would be in the complex from tweets back and forth but he took in the A ball game on the other side that featured a lot of the players I saw the day before in workouts (as a note: minor league spring training schedules should be posted somewhere. I wouldn’t even need the lineups, just the schedules would be great).  He also apparently saw Ronald Guzman and Nomar Mazzaro, the Rangers high priced Dominican kids. Not wanting to interrupt I approached Keith and his friend and he couldn’t have been nicer as I introduced myself. We talked a little baseball as I asked him about the Royals guys he had seen earlier, he said that they all looked good, that Starling looked slightly overwhelmed but that he (Klaw) wasn’t worried about him. I told him how impressed I was with Starling and he affirmed that what I saw was what excited everyone about him. I also told him about what I had seen in the AAA game and he listened to me and his buddy, (I’m sure he took my opinions with a grain of salt, but it was still really cool). It was a really cool experience and I hope to be able to bump into him again sometime and talk some more baseball, maybe when I’m not so nervous trying to make it sound like I know what I’m talking about (I think I do usually, but it doesn’t always come out of my mouth like that, especially when you are meeting someone whose opinions you really respect….see next day’s encounter).  As a side note, Keith later apologized via twitter for leaving to go pick up his daughter right after the game and I was shocked by this. I was happy he gave me the 10-15 minutes of conversation we had.
• After leaving Surprise we met two of Mark and Kim’s friends, Justin and Lisa, at the Four Peaks Brewery near Arizona State’s campus. After some beers and more basketball we went to the ASU-Cal game. Justin played at ASU and Mark went to ASU so it was fun hearing their stories about ASU baseball, etc. Additionally, Justin is really good friends with Tony Renda, Cal’s All-American second basemen’s brother. The game was excellent, with Renda going 0-4. He hit a sharp grounder to the 3B that was booted for an error, rolled over on two grounders to the left side, and then in his final at bat worked the count and then hit a long fly ball to right center field. His final at bat was by far his best at bat and he showed good opposite field pop in the at bat.
• Cal won when the center fielder made a nice catch of a hard hit fly ball in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded to preserve a one run win.
• Per typical college baseball, at least one of the starting pitchers threw a ton of pitches. In this case the ASU starter (sophomore Trevor Williams) labored early and then threw into the 8^th.

On Sunday I got up early (early for me at least), and went to Peoria to buy our tickets to the Padres-Diamonbacks game and then to go to the Rangers intrasquad game. Making it to the intrasquad game was well worth it for a couple of reasons. Yu Darvish was pitching against essentially the AAA lineup and I was able to basically pick my seat. Darvish is the Japanese sensation that the Rangers acquired in the offseason. The Rangers think enough of him to pay more for his services than what they were willing to give CJ Wilson to remain a Ranger.  Darvish projects as either a top end 2 or a potential #1 (or ace). More information on Darvish is available here and here.  I sat beside the scout section, not wanting to be an imposter or interrupt them (I really need to grow some balls on this).

Yu Darvish is good.

• Darvish was electric the first 3 innings. He nibbled a little but his stuff was obviously electric and he was creating a ton of swing and miss. He looked outstanding. In the fourth he began warming up and was picking at a fingernail or blister and then he looked like he began catching a lot of the plate.  (I would later be told he was making adjustments which makes complete sense, because he then got right back in his groove in the 5^th.) It was in this inning that he gave up 4 runs. Most of them were not hard hit balls with one glaring exception. The exception was the 95 mph heater that Mike Olt squared up off the centerfield wall. The pitch had too much of the plate but it’s still a good sign when a top prospect can square a heater from someone like Darvish.

Yu Darvish on the mound.

• The person who told me Darvish was making adjustments was no other than Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Every morning, and most evenings, I commute for a half hour to the Up and In Baseball Prospectus Podcast. Jason is one half of the podcast (Kevin Goldstein is the other), and I was hopeful of meeting him at some point in spring training. Jason is a writer, musician, artist, and a baseball scout who writes for Baseball Prospectus rather than working for a team. Having listened to Jason and Kevin talk baseball for hours and hours and hours, I really wanted to tell him how much I enjoyed his work and to talk a little baseball.

I saw by Jason’s twitter feed (@ProfessorParks) that he was watching Darvish pitch so I asked him where he was. He then had to tell me what he looked like since I had no idea whatsoever. After Darvish finished I walked over, sat down, and introduced myself. Jason couldn’t have been nicer and was really polite as he asked me about what I had seen, how my trip was going, I asked him about Darvish, he volunteered the information about Olt squaring up the 95 and about Darvish making adjustments. It was at that point I sounded like a moron. I asked him if Olt was starting in the AAA, he said, not probably AA and I told him I couldn’t remember where that was and he said Frisco (momentary lapse, since I know the Rangers AA team is in Frisco). Then He asked me where I was from and I said Raleigh. Raleigh is my stock answer since most people don’t know where Hillsborough, NC is. An awkward pause happened and then we continued discussing baseball until they “bagged” the game early. This actually happens quite often in intrasquad and minor league spring training game.

Immediately after telling Jason how big a fan I was and departing it hit me that he probably thinks I’m one of those “Josh Hamilton Rangers Fans.” A Josh Hamilton Rangers Fan is someone who thinks Hamilton roped the moon, that the Rangers revolve around him and the rest of the organization doesn’t matter if Hamilton isn’t playing well. Jason has stated several times that he respects Josh Hamilton the player but not the cult like following nor some of this actions. I’m not a Josh Hamilton Rangers Fan, nor am I actually a Rangers fan at all. I hope Hamilton has a great career, but mainly because he’s taking up 10% of my fantasy team’s payroll and my dad owns a couple baseballs that an 18 year old Josh Hamilton signed that he’s hoping will be worth something someday. I also hope that Hamilton stays sober, but mainly because I hope all recovering addicts can manage to stay sober. The problem, at least in my head, was that I told Jason Parks that I’m from Raleigh (Hamilton’s hometown), I’m watching a Rangers game and I don’t know where the hell the AA Rangers play. All of this meant I wanted to clarify that I might sound like a moron but I’m pretty sure I’m not (at least I hope not). I hope to get to meet Jason somewhere on a ballfield again and hopefully to have a better and longer conversation.

The Nature Boy

• Sunday afternoon Mark, Kim, and I went to the Padres-Diamondbacks game and while the game was interesting, the most interesting thing was the Ric Flair lookalike in the stands in front of us. I’m pretty sure I remember wannabe Nature Boy from last year. But yeah, some people should wear shirts.

Sunday night two of Kim’s brother’s friends came by and the MarkKim resort fixed up some delicious steaks, mashed potatoes, and vegetables. Rich and his girlfriend are both White Sox fans, as is Kim, and we talked about baseball, life, and all kinds of interesting things.

On Monday morning I got another late start due to cleaning up and packing all my stuff back into the car. My flight was supposed to leave at 450 PM so my original plan was to take in Oakland A’s camp near the airport. After my delayed start I decided to take in Padres minor league workouts in Peoria. The Peoria facility is about 5 minutes from the MarkKim and I could be much more productive and then still get to A’s camp for the minor league game later.  I promised my buddy at work Shakey Andrews that I would watch his cousin Brandon Hicks play some at some point.

• In Padres camp, I walked up and watched Rymer Liriano break a bat on his first swing of batting practice. I’m not sure how much English he’s picked up since breaking into pro ball but he’s picked up some of the finer words in the ballplayer vocabulary (not that this is a problem, as this particular word can be used as a noun, verb, adverb, and adjective so at least he picked a versatile word). Liriano projects as an above average right fielder whose production could be similar player to Wil Myers, but who will get those numbers in a different way. He played in High A last year so he’s approximately 1-2 years behind Myers and he projects to hit for more average and power but probably with less walks so the production would be similar. His BP session was solid after he broke a bat on his first swing, which he then gave to one of the 8 year olds who asked for it.
• I also saw Donovan Tate take batting practice. Tate is a form #3 overall pick who signed for 7 digits to forego a football/baseball career at UNC. Tate has struggled with injuries, a fake marijuana suspension, and a lack of translation of his tools to production. I had heard good things about Tate’s transition from last year to this year and he did look smooth in the box. His swing looked good and he looked like a baseball player rather than an athlete trying to be a baseball player.
• Cory Spangenberg  and Jedd Gyorko both project as big league players, both with plus bats. Spangenberg is a 2B who looked ok in his BP session, showing gap to gap power and Gyorko is a bat first 3B who had a comfortable BP session.
• The most interesting batting practice session was Austin Hedges. Hedges was a 2011 draftee who is best known for his defensive work but who projects to hit enough to be a big league regular. I didn’t see any of his defensive work but his work in BP was interesting as he was working with former big leaguer Jaque Jones on mechanical adjustments. His swing was inconsistent as he tried to adjust to incorporate the changes he and Jones were discussing. However he had good balance at the plate and I could see some frustration when he didn’t get it immediately. In a short spurt like this, I would characterize this as good as it may show that he will work to get it down pat. I would project that he isn’t ready for a full season league and will need to complete the adjustments the coaching staff is looking for before he shows his true talent level.

• After breaking for lunch, I drove to Phoenix Municipal Stadium, at which point I discovered finding food was easier said than done as well as finding the actual complex in relation to the main stadium.  My goal was to pick up something, walk into the stadium and say hi to Brandon Hicks before he went on the field for the AAA game. That got shot out the window as I ended up at the field only about 10 minutes early. Instead, I brought him my typical bad luck. Brandon has a lot of swing and miss in his game and I seem to encourage it as I’ve seen him go deep several times in AAA games along with striking out a lot also. Today he struck out twice. Neither at bat was bad, the second one he laid off a couple of borderline breaking balls but then swung through a 1-2 fastball.
  

  Brandon Hicks and Jerome Williams

• Brad Peacock threw for the A’s and got lit up. Peacock is a smaller right handed pitcher who has good control and projects as a back end of the rotation starter. In this game he got destroyed by the lefthanded hitters in the Angels lineup.
• On the other side, Jerome Williams is competing for the 5^th slot in the Angels loaded big league rotation and he looked very good. In addition to punching out Hicks a few times, he made short work of the majority of the rest of the A’s lineup. This included former top prospects Chris Carter and Michael Taylor as it appears that both of them have perhaps plateaued in their development. Taylor also dropped a ball in right field that while not a routine play wasn’t a really tough play.
• Mike Trout and Daric Barton hit in every inning to get them at bats and get them ready for the big league season (even though it looks like Trout will start in AAA). Barton led off every A’s inning and Trout hit second in every Angels inning. Barton didn’t have any hits while I was there but he did have a couple of good at bats. Barton is coming off shoulder surgery that sapped his power and his productivity so it would have been nice to see him at least drive a ball or two with authority. Trout had some ok at bats, but nothing special and while the lefties were killing Peacock, Trout didn’t do anything against him. I will say for someone who has current 80 grade speed on the 20-80 scale (future probably 60-65), he’s a gigantic man.
  

  Mike Trout

No story of Spring Training to Phoenix would be complete without a story about Sky Harbor Airport.  I was having a wonderful airport experience, once I found the rental car return (user/phone error), I was nice and early. Security was polite and quick and then I got to my gate and my flight was delayed an hour. I’m thinking great, now instead of getting home at midnight eastern it’ll be 1 am. And then it gets delayed again. Even better. So I’m writing most of this article as I fly home, knowing I’m not going to land until after 2 AM and not be home until after 3 AM and I was going to work tomorrow. Super excited about this.

However, I’m not letting this cloud my trip. My goals for the trip were to hangout with Mark and Kim, see lots of baseball, and see lots of prospects. I was hopeful I’d get to possibly meet Keith Law or Jason Parks and I’d get to watch my Wolfpack go to a regional final. The Wolfpack victory would have been surprising and I accomplished everything else which is awesome. This was the easiest almost 5,000 words I’ve ever written and I can’t wait for next spring.

Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Notes

I didn’t get around to watching the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game until Monday night (I was distracted by the “game of the century”). The Arizona Fall League is a developmental league for top minor league players that takes place around Phoenix, Arizona in October and November each year. The Fall League mixes players from each minor league system and the games are played in the big league spring training stadiums throughout the Phoenix area. The Rising Stars game is similar to the Futures Game that is played every year on All Star weekend. The rising stars game this year features the top two picks from the 2011 draft and the top two 2011 prospects.  The game was featured on MLB Network on Saturday night in what appears to be the first of several weeks of AFL coverage.

This years game was started by 2011 #1 overall pick Gerrit Cole and #2 overall pick Danny Hultzen. Cole has electric stuff, a fastball up to 98 miles per hour, a devastating changeup at 88-89 MPH, and what is supposed to be an electric slider (looked avg not great in this game). Unfortunately on Saturday he had no fastball command and seemed to throw alot of straight fastballs. Even in a minor league showcase game, guys can hit it if they know its coming, especially when you don’t command the heat. The tools are obviously impressive but, as has been said by many people, Cole needs a new pitching plan and better command than what he showed on Saturday. The command apparently isn’t a huge issue and the plan shouldn’t be, but both adjustments needs to be made.

Hultzen on the other hand is extremely polished but doesn’t have the upside of Cole. Hultzen can probably pitch in the big leagues sometime next year but only projects as a #2 or a #3 starter, not the ace that Cole projects to be. Hultzen located his fastball at about 91-94, had a good slider, a good curve, and showed a changeup. The slider and curve looked good and the changeup, reportedly his best pitch as an amateur, was only average. Hultzen’s most difficult AB’s were a walk to Bryce Harper (sporting a horrendous mustache) and a fly ball to the fence off the bat of future Nationals catcher Derek Norris.

Royals right hander Jeremy Jeffress, acquired in the Zack Grienke trade, struck out the side without walking anyone. The important part of that is the not walking anyone as he averaged over 6 walks/9 innings last year. He also showed three above average pitches including a fastball in the 97-99 mph range.

Offensively, the standouts from the game were Mariners farmhand Nick Franklin, Brave farmhand Joey Terdoslavich, and Royals outfield prospect Wil Myers.  Franklin, a shortstop prospect, hit a bomb to the opposite field while hitting left handed later adding doubles to right and left and throwing in a single as well. Franklin draws raving reviews for both his power and his makeup. Terdoslavich is a bat without a position. He played first on Saturday but his bat probably does not profile at first going forward and he will reportedly play 3B next year in the minors. Terdoslavich hit an absolute bomb off a Cole fastball in the middle of the plate in the first, immediately after swinging through two excellent changeups.  Terdoslavich would later also single and double in the game. Myers is a former catching prospect who is now a rightfielder that has been mentioned in the Royals-Braves trade talks surrounding Jair Jurrjens recently. A night after going 5 for 5, Myers hit several balls hard on Saturday including a smoked liner right at Cubs prospect Junior Lake at SS that Lake oleyed into a double.

It should be pointed out that Kevin Mattison, who’s a 26 year old and in AA, is not really a big prospect but he also had a good game with a couple hits and he can really run.

As something that is hard to evaluate it was positive to see both Bryce Harper and A’s prospect and former #10 draft pick Michael Choice take pitches and walk rather than expand the zone and try to do too much. Choice is known for taking walks, hitting for power, and striking out. After taking a walk in his first AB he would strike out in his second one.

Another note that I always find interesting in a game like this is that all of these guys are roughly 23 and under and some of them are just now starting to fill out. Some of them are guys who are eventually going to be 15-25 pounds heavier by their peaks and its a good reminder that even top level athletes gain weight as they get older, not just those of us who sit behind desks all day.

World Series Predictions

Someday I’ll actually do a real preview of something: Playoffs, World Series, Football Season, Baseball Season, something.

I like the Rangers over the Cardinals in the Series and the major issues I see are these:

1. Ron Washington may very well cost the Rangers a game.
2. The Rangers defense is very good.
3. Both these teams can really hit.
4. Neither of these teams has great pitching.
5. Chris Carpenter’s elbow scares the hell out of me.
6. I am not looking forward to watching Tony LaRussa manage under the world series spotlight.

The deciding factor for me is the depth of the Cardinals lineup and the doubts I have about Chris Carpenter’s health.

As a side note, I’m really hoping that LaRussa does something awesome like having Albert Pujols sac bunt. I remember him having McGwire sac bunt in the ’92 playoffs and then the A’s lose when Robbie Alomar hit a home run.

Baseball, Math, and Keith Law

In response to an email on Tuesday’s ESPN Baseball Today podcast (found here), Keith Law ranted the following, “I just want to nail this for how stupid it is. He’s saying that if you like stats you’re not a fan.  That’s what he just said, he said it very eloquently but that’s what he just said….That’s stupid. That’s absolutely ridiculous and it’s a gross generalization. It just plays into this fear of math and fear of science that we see not just in baseball but all over society. But it particularly comes up here. You can love baseball and be into the statistical analysis. These two things are not mutually exclusive….I’m going to two games today, and it’s not just for work but it’s because I love baseball, I love going to these (Arizona) Fall League games.  And yet at the same time, if you ask me, ‘Hey which player is better or which team is better?’ I’m not just going off my gut here, I’m going to look at the statistics. I’m going to look at different ones and I’m going to look at the ones that I think do the best job of answering the question. Because I love baseball enough to want to get at the right answer, or the best answer possible.”

I should admit at this point that I’m a Keith Law fan. Keith tries to tell it like he sees it, tries to use all available data in his analysis, and has a mix of experience between scouting and statistical analysis that I like. Keith has worked for Baseball Prospectus and the Toronto Blue Jays and has been with ESPN for several years doing a combination of scouting and analysis.

The Baseball Today podcast has an excellent dynamic between Eric Karabell, whose not nearly as fantasy based as you would think, and KLAW. I like how they pair analysis and information (sometimes inside info) along with using sabremetrics (new age stats) to back up what they see with their eyes (more so with KLAW but with Karabell to a lesser extent).

Many baseball fans just want watch their game and don’t want to have to think about it at all. Many members of our society want to go to work everyday, vote for whoever they are told to vote for, and don’t want to think about it at all. In baseball its easy enough to decide what the correct decisions are, who the better player is, etc. That doesn’t mean that what “should” happen will. Luck or randomness will stay play into what happens on the field. In life those decisions are a little more complicated. But in baseball we should be willing to use the math to “get at the best answer possible.” And if you aren’t capable of the math, there are excellent websites out there to do it for you. Those include fangraphs.com, baseball-reference.com, baseball prospectus and to a lesser extent espn.com. I’m pretty good at math but I didn’t like the only Stats class I had to take in college and most of the true statistical analysis would require more effort than I want to put forth.

The point here is that just because you don’t want to think, don’t get upset when other people do. And if those people are willing to think and try to help you out along the way, don’t get pissed about it.